Mondo vs Bubka
Mondo would beat Bubka 4 out of 5 times.
Bubka would be faster, younger, and more technical in the modern era, but still fall short.
SPEED:
There's a lot of inconsistency in the reports of Bubka's speed, most pin him at about 10.0 m/s at takeoff.
Mondo is cited at 10.2 m/s. Part of this is his straight-up sprint speed, but the real reason he achieves this speed is because he's more efficient running with the pole. He's been cited as having only a 2% difference in sprint speed from running without a pole to running with a pole, compared to 6% with Sam Kendricks and 10% or more with other vaulters.
Modern spikes, track surfaces, and training techniques will make a slight difference for Bubka. His new takeoff speed will likely be 10.1 - 10.2 m/s. Slight edge to Mondo, but this one's close.
Both athletes are around 183 cm tall. Mondo's Wikipedia states 180 cm, but he appears taller in person.
TECHNIQUE:
Bubka's technical model is older and employs a "giant swing" as in gymnastics with a narrow grip. This allows him to invert quickly and rocket off the top of the pole, but wastes energy that could have been contributing towards pole bend.
See this post: https://www.facebook.com/reel/1067669108295131/
Now, part of Mondo's advantage is he started vaulting later in the timeline and could learn from previous vaulter. Would Bubka adapt his technique to a more modern model? Certainly. But would his technical efficiency match that of Mondo's? The kid is a kinesthetic genius whose technique has remained consistent for the last decade. At best, they would be equal. More realistically, Mondo has a slight edge.
With Bubka's previous PR of 6.15m being achieved at the age of 30, he could have jumped higher at a younger age. Some claim he could have jumped up to 6.40, but I find it unlikely. Pole vaulters peak late with the average age at the Olympics being 27. He'd probably get at most 5 cm higher if he went for his maximum in his prime.
Mondo is close to being maxed out on his personal best. He scraped the bar bad on his 6.30m clearance, and he's been getting that same 6.30 - 6.35m height on his vaults for several years now:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_FnI0kCX7w
I see Bubka equaling Mondo at best, but more realistically coming 5-10 cm short of him due to slight decreases in speed and technique. Bubka would see a 2-5 cm improvement from being in his prime and a 5-10 cm improvement from superior technology and training. That brings his new PR to 6.22 - 6.30m.
CONSISTENCY
Comparing the World Athletics profiles of the two, Bubka's most impressive season was 1991 with 6.10, 6.11, 6.12, and 17/26 meets over 5.90m. This is really the only season that compares to Mondo's profile year after year. Even 2023, Mondo's 'down year' due to slight hamstring and hip impingements, shows 13/18 meets over 6 meters. A large part of why Bubka's 6.15m came so late in his career is due to incessant injuries destabilizing his training regimen. Meanwhile, Mondo never gets seriously injured. It really is amazing how Mondo is able to show up in prime condition meet after meet and season after season.
In high-level track and field, someone with a PR 5-10 cm higher but better consistency beats the other competitor 8 /10 times or more. There's only one way the inferior vaulter wins: they jump a great meet, and the superior vaulter falters. But there's three ways they can lose: they jump bad and the other vaulter jumps great, they jump good and the other vaulter jumps good, or they jump bad and the other vaulter jumps bad. By this very nature, Bubka loses at least 75% of the time.
Mondo is way more likely to jump 6.10m meet after meet, and this is the real reason he wins head-to-head.
SUMMARY:
Bubka would jump higher in the modern era due to better training, technology, and going for a personal best in his prime.
His new PR would be in the range of 6.22 - 6.30m. I predict he would be close to 6.25m, since his speed and technique would be slightly worse than Mondo's.
He could break a WR during this era, but Mondo would beat him head-to-head the majority of the time, mostly due to the large disparity in consistency between the two.
